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Whether you want a quick re-cap of the facts of stock markets or a beginner’s primer, this article gives you a basic understanding of stock market for dummies. There are many reasons you might be interested in learning about the stock market from a beginner’s perspective. You might want a quick and dirty low-down on what stock markets are and how they can earn you money. You might be confused about all the stock market investing jargon out there and want someone to clear it all up for you. You might want to learn about the stock market but haven’t a clue where to begin. Whatever your reason, you’re on the right track in wanting to learn how the stock market works because it is one of the surest ways of multiplying your money. Here is the most basic stuff about stock market investing that you need to know to get started (think of this as stock market for dummies): What is the Stock Market? A stock market is essentially like any other market: a place to buy and sell something, which in this case are stocks. Stocks are instruments of ownership in a company. In other words, owning stock in a corporation means you own a part of that organization. Owning stock also generally gives you the right to vote on important decisions in that company. How Does a Stock Market Work? A stock market works on the same economic principles of supply and demand that any other market works on. When demand is high and supply is limited, the price of stocks goes up; and when demand is low and stocks are aplenty, it drives down the price of stocks. The price of a stock is an important indicator of a company’s viability: if the stock price goes up consistently over a long period of time (a year or two), then the stock is generally deemed a good investment. What are the Financial Benefits of Stock Market Investing? Most people invest for two reasons: to maintain their wealth or to increase their wealth. If you’re like most people, you fall in the latter category because you want to make money by investing in stock. The way to earn an income from stocks is through dividends. Companies pay out dividends to its stock holders as a way of thanking them for investing in the company. Dividends are a percentage of the profit that the company has earned. Since you are a part-owner of the company (through your stock investment), you are entitled to a part of the earnings. Your dividend amount generally represents the value of stock you hold in the company. How Soon Can I Make Money with Stocks? Stock market investing is a long-term game plan so be ready to have a long term investment strategy. Short term investing (anything less than a year) is called “speculating” and is considered risky. Long term investing is better because stocks tend to fluctuate (sometimes wildly) on a daily basis but become stable over time and it is generally easier to spot (and utilize data from) stock market trends over the long term. What are Stock Market Trends? If you’ve ever watched financial news and analysis you’d have heard of the bull market and the bear market. Essentially the stock market is called bullish when the economy is looking good and more people are buying stock than selling it. The stock market is called bearish when more stock selling than buying is going on and the economic outlook is looking towards a downturn or perhaps even a recession. Since stock market trends gradually become apparent over time it is useful to analyze past market data combined with future economic outlooks to predict which direction the stock market will take. Understanding when a bull or bear market is about to hit is the key to understanding when to get in or out of the stock market. Doing your market research is vital to understanding how the stock market functions. And once you understand how it functions, making money from stock investing can be a great way to generate income for the years to come. So whether you want to save up for retirement, set up an income stream or become a major player in the stock market, remember to follow the advice given here to understanding the stock market. If you’re a beginner, start by reading up as much as you can on stock market for dummies.

Most people think of stock market risk as the chance that they will lose money in a particular investment. Actually, the risk of investing in the stock market falls into many categories.

Market risk is the risk that the entire market will go down. When that happens, most of the stocks you own will go down too. The same is true for mutual funds. Buying shares in all companies listed on a stock exchange does not eliminate stock market risk. Think about it. Even if you invest in “the market”, you still have exposure to the risk that “the market” will fall.

The only way to reduce stock market risk is to invest some of your assets outside of the stock market. For instance, buying bonds is a good way to reduce your vulnerability to a falling stock market; so is investing in real estate or art.

Concentration risk. If you put all of your money into the stock of only one company, you leave yourself wide open to both stock market risk and company-specific risk because all is riding on one firm’s fate. This is especially common for employees of that one Company.

Spreading the same money among, say, twenty different stocks will go a long way toward reducing your portfolio’s dependence on any one of the companies purchased. In other words, simply owning many companies can dramatically reduce company-specific risk. Long before you and I were born, some wise person said: Dont put all your eggs in one basket.

There is event risk that could affect a specific company. For example, an article could appear in the newspaper that a companys product causes cancer or a plane crash could kill the entire management team.

Theres opportunity risk – that means that you could have done something better with your money.

Theres the risk of inflation. This means that your rate of return could have been lower than the rate of inflation over a period of years. Even if you made all the correct investment decisions, if the long-term rate of inflation was the same as your long-term rate of return, basically, you broke even in terms of buying power.

Financial risk can be divided into two parts. The first part is the probability of the stock declining. The second part is the potential magnitude of the decline.

Generally, risk and reward go hand in hand. If you take a greater risk, you should intend for a greater reward. You have to be careful though. Sometimes you take a very high risk and dont get the opportunity for a high reward.

If you want a high degree of safety, generally, you should expect a lower rate of return. If you want a very high rate of return, and take the risks associated with big returns, every once in awhile, you should expect to lose big.

We have all heard that stocks are risky in the short run but not for the longer term. How is it possible that short-term stock market risk largely disappears at long horizons? Where does the risk go?

The swings in the rate of return that reduce long-term risk is known as mean-reversion. It means that unusually high stock returns today lower the expectation of returns in the future. Bull markets tend to be followed by corrections. Bear markets tend to be followed by recoveries. Stock prices revert towards a long-run average or mean, and stocks are said to be mean-reverting. Under these circumstances, stock market risk declines as your investment horizon lengthens because the longer your holding period, the closer your return will be to the average.

During roaring bull markets, investors are attracted to the stock market by the prospect of future high returns, greed. They hope to earn high stock returns in the future similar to the high returns of the past. If instead, stocks mean-revert, future returns are likely to be lower.

During dramatic stock market declines, individual investors allow fear to overtake them and they sell their stocks, very often at or near the bottom.

A major problem here is that you might wait too long before getting back in. You would miss out on the good market that invariably follows the bad market. Its even worse, if you allow fear of a bear market to keep you from ever investing in the stock market again.

If you have a clear understanding of stock-market cycles, you might be more comfortable investing in bad times. When most things go on sale, more people to want to buy. Warren Buffett said: The stock market is the only business I know of, that when there is a sale, nobody comes.

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Year 2009 was a tough for money managers, regardless of their methodology or market of choice. Every conceivable trading paradigm was challenged by the collapsed equity market and unprecedented government and central bank intervention. The key factors affecting equity pricing in 2010 will the monetary policy, the looming sovereign debt crisis, bursting market asset bubbles, anti-business policy coming out of Washington DC and the lack of job growth. U.S. have an unprecedented crisis of confidence among taxpayers and investors. Millions of U.S. citizens are protesting against Washington!

The White House has announced federal deficits that are far worse than any prior estimates; $1.6 trillion for 2010 and $1.3 trillion for 2011. We should expect continuing massive deficits. 2010 could be the year public debt among US states is finally internalized by equity markets, forcing equity valuations lower as public sector debt swamps more states than just California. A crisis of public debt could expose the central structural problems in the US economy; financing the difference between income and living standards, masking productivity loss with inflation and over-reliance on a credit fueled consumer. Complicating the current unpaid liabilities of the states are their unfunded long-term obligations in the public pension and health systems. These obligations will start to extort a major toll on state budgets in the coming years.

Even if a debt crisis would be postponed beyond 2010, there are still tremendous risks for growth. The expiry of Bush tax cuts will reign in private investment. Congress is examining a host of policy initiatives, any one of which could stall growth and add to long term obligations. As private investment gets crowded out and the public sector falters and contracts, the overall effect will be negative for jobs and consumption. Without a new asset bubble to inflate the market, defensive moves by companies to reign in cost structures will no longer be sufficient to manufacture profits. Valuations should begin to move in line with earnings. All of this argues for lower equity markets in 2010 and an expansion of volatility. Most of these externalities will induce a sell-off of the inflated value of stocks. 

Stocks are cheap to cash when the fed funds rate is near zero. Corporate profits will continue to look good, bolstered by low cost structures, not by growth. But in order for stocks to move higher or maintain their 2009 gains throughout 2010, an engine of job growth must emerge. However, the growth scenario is less likely. The midterm elections could change the tone of policy coming out of Washington. If Washington would change the course of policy, it is likely to come at the expense of stimulus for 2010. This would cause the equity market to decline in 2010. In almost every past recession and bear market U.S. corporations has delivered solid values to investors. Price-earnings ratios (P/E’s) use to be in single digits. Solid stocks has been selling for five or six times earnings. It has never happen before that the U.S. government panicked. Now P/Es are already back up again to grossly overvalued levels.

States drowning in debt may be able to summon the political will to correct their fiscal course at the state level. The US government has successfully covered-up the decline in personal income for many years. There is no reason to assume this year is the year the market takes its medicine.

The Foundation for the Study of Cycles, a nonprofit research think tank founded 70 years ago in the wake of the Great Depression, have sorted through historic data going back 5,000 years. They have put together data series on most major markets during the latest 300 years. Since 1971 the Foundation have in advance accurately identified cycles and nearly every major shift in market direction. Monty Agarwal, partner of the hedge fund MACM LLC, has analyzed the Foundation’s research with great interest and fund that the accuracy rate is far superior to any other approach he has ever seen. The Foundation predicted the timing of the Crash of ‘87. It predicted the timing of the bear market of 2000-2002. It predicted the market’s rise through 2007. And it nailed the top of the market prior to the big plunge in 2008. Its cycle work predicted the great bull market in gold of the 1970s. It predicted gold’s downturn starting in the 1980s. And it was suggested to get back into gold in 2001.

The research suggests that most U.S. stocks are likely to fall in a zigzag pattern froths year and for nearly three long years. The Foundation also forecast that gold will skyrocket far higher than $2,000 per ounce by the end of 2011. In the last few years gold quadrupled in value, despite two big stock market declines and the worst recession since the Great Depression. Richard Mogey point to that gold parallels the cycles in the U.S. dollar. And for the dollar the Foundation have cyclical data going all the way back to 1680. Its cycles predicted the dollar’s plunge from 1971 to 1980, the dollar’s surge peaking in 1985, the dollar’s decline bottoming in 1992, the dollar’s rally through 2001 and the big plunge since.

The real decline in the dollar, and all other currencies, will show up more clearly in the doubling of the value of gold. Measured against gold, the dollar’s purchasing power will fall by half or more, depending, of course, on the intensity of the global selling that hits the greenback. The U.S. Dollar Index will begin to sink in 2010 and will not hit bottom until early 2012.

Cyclical data on GDP and on consumption points to a material improvement in the U.S. economy through the first two quarters of 2010. However, starting in the second half of 2010, GDP growth will start to sink fast and negative growth could be expected by the beginning of 2011. The U.S. economy will suffer a severe double-dip recession in 2011! The worst period for the economy will hit in the fourth quarter of 2012. For year 2012, the Obama administration is making some aggressively optimistic assumptions for the U.S. economy and forecasting a deficit of $828 billion. Instead, with the economy sinking, it could be over $2 trillion!

Richard Mogey believe that 2012 will be the year of maximum turmoil in markets and has also pegged it as the year of the “Perfect Storm.” The Foundation have the dollar cycle, stock market cycles, consumption cycles, and GDP cycles all bottoming in this same approximate time frame, between late 2011 and 2012. Year 2012 is also the middle of a sweeping transition in the longest and probably most important cycle of all. The 500-year geopolitical cycle. The Foundation have mapped it back to 670 BC. It is a broad and far-reaching shift in power, wealth; earlier from East to West, and now from West to East. There will also be a major wealth shift from old fortunes that are destroyed to new ones that are created. This wealth shift will be seen from countries, companies, and families that were dominant for many decades to new ones that replace them on the other side of this massive upheaval!

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